Relationship and interdependence
The effects of global warming are increasing. And with them, situations of tension or open conflict between groups of populations, countries or inhabitants of different regions. Because global warming and wars are linked: each influences the other and these effects. They influence the availability and access to resources, water and food in particular, generate migrations to flee the hardest hit areas and leave the same affected populations with a feeling of abandonment, anger and fear.
Global warming has obtained consensus from the scientific community. The same goes for the impact of human activity on this change : climate change is caused by human activity (industry, transport, agriculture, etc.)
The impact of global warming is still being studied, and predictive models are being developed for the years and decades to come. However, the changes are already being felt : Tornadoes and cyclones are becoming more frequent and gaining power; the same goes for floods. High heat, especially, worry.
In order to know how to adapt, how to act, you have to understand the link between the two. How does global warming exacerbate current conflicts, increase the risks of the appearance of new ones? How does it aggravate the effects of wars? Conversely, how do wars impact global warming? How do they aggravate the horror of wars?
Global warming: conflict incubator
Climate change brings its attendant problems. Among them: low precipitation and drought or, conversely, excessive precipitation and flooding. In the first case, water scarcity leads to a drop in harvests and therefore in food production and the availability of local agricultural resources. In the second case, if the water is abundant, it is not necessarily usable. In addition, the condition of roads, villages and towns after a flood can make access to resources and movement uncertain.
Global warming aggravates the objects of tension between countries, professions or ethnic groups. For the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRR), “scientists generally agree that climate change does not directly cause armed conflict, but that it may indirectly increase the risk of conflict by exacerbating existing social, economic and environmental factors.” Access to resources is one of its factors.
Thus, the supposed installation of a dam in Afghanistan on the Helmand River and reported by The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), had reignited tensions with Iran. « Supposed » because Iran, although having accused its neighbor of this installation, has not provided the proof; hydraulic dam therefore the Taliban in power denies the existence. Iran largely depends on the flow of this river. And it was low, too low for agriculture to run as it should be.
Kabul had used the climate and the drought that crossed Afghanistan as an excuse. A justification in which Tehran had not believed, accusing its neighbor of not respecting the water sharing agreements concluded between the two countries. This agreement defines the sharing of river water between the two countries since 1973.
This example is not the only one. In Senegal, national water use policies are detrimental to farmers in Guinea-Bissau. Relations between the two countries are affected. Another example, in Morocco, the sharing of water generates internal dissension between the people and the state and between the populations themselves. In a report from May 2023, the French Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy of the Ministry of the Armed Forces (Direction générale des relations internationales et de la stratégie du ministère des Armées, DGRIS) and the french Institute of International and Strategic Relations ( Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, IRIS) report on the conflict between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers. Some farmers end up poisoning the water or burning the crops to scare away the breeders!
“Refugees gather in camps. This creates local pressure, particularly on resources, because they have to eat and drink. And this can contribute to already existing tensions.”
Robert McLeman
And the list goes on for a long time: conflict over access to water in the Philippines and food insecurity, population displacement in French Guyana, etc. Water is generally a major issue in situations of tension between countries or categories of populations.
But, in addition to the current conflict situations, others are to be expected, with global warming increasing their probabilities! The IRIS and DGRIS report thus evokes a possible conflict in Amazonia for the monopolization of « green gold » (access to forest resources), or along the Nile, for the sharing of river resources. between Egypt, Sudan and South Sudan, Uganda as well as between Kenya and Ethiopia where the river originates.
“Refugees gather in camps. This creates local pressure, particularly on resources, because they have to eat and drink. And this can contribute to already existing tensions.” said Robert McLeman, a professor in the Department of Geography at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
But these are just examples of what could happen. However, it is important, as the report implies, to understand the risks and plan for them.
In addition to exacerbating tensions and facilitating the emergence of new conflicts – or the worsening of current conflicts – wars weaken populations. This impacts their ability to deal with new conflicts or ecological disasters.
Global warming and war as population weakening factor
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states in a report published in a July 12, 2020 report titled « Conflict and Climate » that “climate change does contribute to increased conflict, but this often happens along indirect pathways. It makes the most vulnerable even more vulnerable.”
This weakening of populations is a problem. By limiting their access to water, food, a working roof or even by complicating travel, global warming deteriorates people’s health. They are thus subject to dehydration – during water stress – malnutrition, chronic fatigue.
The promiscuity imposed by migrations can promote the development and spread of viruses, when the bad climatic conditions are not already sufficient for the emergence of an epidemic of flu or other.
This weakening of the population is also an aggravating factor in wars and global warming: tensions over the monopolization of resources are thus increased. But global warming is not the only factor weakening populations. Wars also play their roles.
In a war, certain key points are generally targeted, and starving the enemy is a strategy « like any other » – however brutal and unhealthy it may be. Thus, it is not uncommon for warehouses or factories to be targeted, even if regulations govern wars and delimit the field of possibilities while including the rest in war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Furthermore, during massive and widespread bombardment, as is the case in Ukraine, fields and pastures can be devastated, thus making any food production near the front or in conflict zones impossible.
And even if these food production areas were not destroyed, on-site production would imply that farmers and breeders agree to stay on site to work… and therefore put their lives in danger! What may seem uncertain.
Conflicts can also lead to pollution of water and food stocks or contaminate production areas, thus making food unfit for consumption.
Wars participate in global warming
War, through certain effects already mentioned, contributes to global warming. Firstly, by limiting the initiatives or the resources allocated to it aimed at reducing climate change. A country’s budget then goes entirely into the army and the war effort, to the detriment of the rest.
In addition, projects aimed at improving the state of the climate can be completely or partially destroyed. The lives of people participating in these projects and initiatives may also be at risk. Their efforts will therefore be limited (in order to be less exposed) or even stopped if they were to perish or have to leave.
In addition to the limitations they impose on climate protection initiatives, wars contribute more directly to global warming.
For the UNFFCC, one of the most “visceral images of the environmental cost of conflict was during the first Gulf War, when 700 of Kuwait’s oil fields were set ablaze. The smoke plume above them initially stretched for 800 miles.” The bombing caused a plume of smoke above them that initially stretched 800 miles. 11 million barrels of crude oil was poured into the Persian Gulf, which leads to the appearance of a slick nine miles long.
As UNFFCC said, “an international coalition of firefighters battled the fires for months until the last well was finally capped in November 1991”. Today, more than 30 years later, 90% of the contaminated soil is still exposed. There is no official data, but the impact of this fire on global temperatures seems worrying.
The destruction of the soil is also a real concern: it previously sheltered fauna and flora which, due to a war that passed there, is no longer there.
In addition, the war effort in itself pollutes: movement of troops in vehicles generally using fossil fuels, overflights of planes and combat helicopters, arms factories running at full speed. All of this contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn contribute to global warming.
Global warming, wars & migrations
In addition to the effects already mentioned, wars and global warming can cause migrations which, in turn, will encourage the emergence of war or the worsening of the current one. Migration can also contribute to global warming and its effects.
As Robert McLeman, professor in the Department of Geography at Wilfrid Laurier University puts it, knowing “whether migration creates the conditions for the emergence of a conflict” is still under study. However, if migrations alone do not cause wars, they contribute to the appearance of a climate favorable to the emergence of conflicts – or to the aggravation of ongoing conflicts.
Populations already weakened are thus even more: access to food and water is deteriorating, as well as access to care. Not necessarily having a roof above their heads, and the smugglers having little interest in their safety, migrants are subject to the slightest variation in the climate. A strong storm, which will usually have little impact, can be disastrous for the displaced populations here.
“Migrants sometimes find themselves with nothing to do. They are bored. Some then find themselves enlisted in the army or in a local militia, thus participating, unwittingly, in the growing insecurity of the region and fueling the ongoing conflicts.”
Robert McLeman
The same goes for water and food. Since there is no supermarket close to the path the migrants follow, they must plan in advance or find other methods on site. Water is, from this point of view, more problematic. Heavy and quickly cumbersome, the migrants can only transport a limited quantity, generally insufficient for the duration of the journey. And getting supplies up high in the middle of a desert can be perilous.
McLeman adds that migrants can be “subjected to racism or marginalized. This rejection, coupled with shortages and deprivations, favors the emergence of new conflicts.” The populations already there sometimes take a dim view of the arrival of migrants at home. People can perceive a form of insecurity there.
Moreover, for McLeman, “migrants sometimes find themselves with nothing to do. They are bored. Some then find themselves enlisted in the army or in a local militia, thus participating, unwittingly, in the growing insecurity of the region and fueling the ongoing conflicts.”
Thus, the latest Global Report of Internal Displacement found that, in 2020, 30 million people were newly-displaced – inside their own country – as a result of the global warming and weather-related disasters. At the same time, 9.8 million people were displaced as a result of conflicts and violence.
In a new report published in 2023, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reports 32.6 million people displaced by weather-related and geophysical disasters. And they give the details: 19 219 000 people have undergone floods, 9 980 000 sustained storms, 366 000 sustained fires & 12 000 have to flee extreme temperatures. They were 28.3 million to be internally displaced because of conflicts and violence and 60% of them because of international armed conflict.
Thus, it is necessary to adapt as much as to act to reduce the human impact on the climate. This adaptation also applies to the army: reduction of its ecological impact, consideration of climate change in its operational functioning, adaptation of weapons and equipment, training of soldiers accordingly… And above all, taking into account the worsening impact of wars and global warming on populations during relief and law enforcement missions.
Benoit Dupuis-Tordjeman : Photographie et journalisme 